Path to Product

Four phases. 18 months. $215,000

We don't commit mold-tooling budget until the classifier works in real homes. Every phase has a go signal and a rollback trigger. Proof-of-pipeline disclosure: this site was generated by the NLT POC pipeline on 2026-05-13; PE decision FUND, score 7.1 / 10.

Phase 1

Validate

Concierge MVP cohort intake, SAB recruitment, waitlist landing page, behaviorist-partner outreach, pre-FCC RF scan.

Timeline
60 days
Cost
$30,000 Modeled

Phase 1 — Use of Funds

  • SAB retainer (3 × Q1 partial)
    $9,000 (30%)
  • Concierge MVP cohort (5 homes × supervised intake)
    $9,000 (30%)
  • Waitlist landing + outreach tooling
    $6,000 (20%)
  • Legal entity, IP filings, reserve
    $6,000 (20%)
Go signal
1,000 waitlist signups + 3 DACVB SAB members signed.

Rollback triggers

  • Waitlist signup rate · < 150/week by day 30 → Pause Phase 2; revisit ICP narrowness vs. storm-belt geo concentration.
  • SAB recruitment · < 2 DACVBs signed by day 45 → Re-scope clinical claim; cannot defensibly position as therapy-grade without ≥ 2 SAB.
  • Concierge cohort engagement · < 3 of 5 homes report measurable calm-state delivery in week 2 → Stop; firmware behavioral logic is wrong before tooling spend.

Phase 2

Prototype

Schematic + PCB rev 1–3, firmware v0 (audio classifier, pose classifier, treat-delivery state machine), mobile companion app v0, lab-bench validation against recorded thunder clips.

Timeline
90 days
Cost
$55,000 Modeled

Phase 2 — Use of Funds

  • Hardware engineering contractor (90 days)
    $22,500 (41%)
  • Embedded firmware contractor (90 days)
    $22,500 (41%)
  • Mobile app v0 + cloud inference stub
    $6,000 (11%)
  • Test rig + recorded-thunder corpus + dev units
    $4,000 (7%)
Go signal
Working prototype that classifies dog state at 5 fps and auto-triggers a session on a recorded thunder clip with <40 dB dispenser noise.

Rollback triggers

  • On-device pose classifier accuracy · < 75% on 4-class hold-out at end of day 60 → Pause; reconsider ESP32-S3 vs. external NPU before committing to BOM.
  • Dispenser noise floor · > 45 dB at 1 m on rev-1 prototype → Stop tooling order; mechanical redesign required before molds.
  • False-positive session rate · > 1 session / 24 h on non-storm audio → Audio classifier needs retraining before any home pilot.

Phase 3

Tool & manufacture

Injection-mold tooling for S/M/L chassis, FCC Part 15B + 15C certification, first 1,000-unit production run, warranty reserve build.

Timeline
120 days
Cost
$115,000 Modeled

Phase 3 — Use of Funds

  • Injection-mold tooling (3 sizes × $35K avg)
    $105,000 (91%)
  • FCC certification (Part 15B + 15C)
    $10,000 (9%)
Go signal
First 1,000 units in warehouse, FCC certified, beta-cohort 30-day retention ≥ 70%.

Rollback triggers

  • FCC pre-scan result · Emissions failure on rev-2 prototype → Halt tooling order; PCB respin before committing $105K to molds.
  • Tooling lead-time · > 14 weeks quoted → Re-source toolmaker; protect Phase 4 launch window.
  • First-article inspection · Auger jam rate > 1 in 200 cycles → Tool revision before 1K production run.

Phase 4

Launch

DTC site live, Chewy + Petco channel conversations, behaviorist-clinic referral program, paid acquisition with $35 CAC target.

Timeline
180 days
Cost
$15,000 Modeled

Phase 4 — Use of Funds

  • Operating reserve + insurance + compliance year 1
    $15,000 (100%)
Go signal
$50K MRR with month-18 break-even tracking; LTV/CAC ≥ 4:1 on cohort-1 retention curve.

Rollback triggers

  • CAC · > $80 on month-2 paid acquisition → Pause spend; rework positioning before scaling channel.
  • Hardware return rate · > 6% in first 30 days → Stop new acquisition; warranty + reliability triage before brand damage.
  • Subscription attach rate · < 60% at hardware checkout → Pricing or onboarding flow needs rework; sub margin is half the unit economics.

Capital Required

$215,000 seed across 4 phases to month-18 break-even at $50K MRR. The $105,000 injection-mold tooling line is the dominant timeline + capital risk; we gate that spend behind Phase 2 go-signals. See /inside for the full use-of-funds breakdown.